The cost-of-living crisis and suicide rates: Time series analysis of data from 54 countries

Résumé fourni par la source

Background: The cost-of-living crisis may be contributing to suicide rates, but this has not been adequately tested. Aims: We aimed to determine whether the cost-of-living crisis is associated with suicide rates in multiple countries and areas-within-countries. Method: We sourced country- and area-within-country-level monthly suicide data at a minimum from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2022 (and at a maximum from 1 January 2016 to 30 June 2023), and population denominator and monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) data. We calculated the yearly change in inflation as the percentage change in CPI for one month versus the equivalent month in the previous year. We estimated associations between yearly change in inflation (lagged by one month) and suicide rates for each country and area-within-country, using autoregressive negative binomial regression. We summarised results using weighted means. Results: We obtained data on 1,372,994 suicides from 54 countries. At the country-level, for every 1.0% increase in yearly inflation in the previous month, there was an average 0.2% increase in suicide rates. The association was strongest in those aged 30-49 and 50-69; for every 1.0% increase in yearly inflation in the previous month, there were 0.3% and 0.6% increases in suicide rates for these age-groups, respectively. This pattern held for males in these age-groups, with increases of the same magnitude, and for females aged 50-69, with a 0.8% increase. At the area-within-country-level, the picture was even starker. Limitations: Study limitations include: the ecological design; the single measure of inflation; potential variations in suicide data quality; lack of representation by low-and-middle-income countries (LMICS); lack of availability of sex, age and sex/age breakdowns for some countries and areas-within-countries; and potential issues with multiple testing. Conclusions: There is an association between the cost-of-living crisis and suicide rates internationally. Public and social policies that improve people’s circumstances are critical.

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