Spatiotemporal patterns of conflict-related sexual violence in Colombia

Le résumé fourni par la source

Abstract Sexual violence is one of the most severe forms of civilian victimization in the Colombian armed conflict, yet population-scale analysis of its patterns remains limited. Here, using two national victimization databases, we profiled victim demographics and applied log-Gaussian Cox process and Hawkes process modelling to examine geospatial clustering and temporal contagion across the entire conflict (1964–2024) and a recent period (2014–2024). Victims were predominantly female (~90%) and disproportionately from minority ethnic groups. Geospatial analysis indicates that sexual violence may be more widely present than raw event counts suggest and has shifted from concentrated, high-intensity incidents to more dispersed patterns. Unadjusted Hawkes models indicated near-critical temporal dependency in both periods, but Hawkes models adjusted for background conflict intensity suggest that event-to-event contagion was minimal in both periods. Identified areas of historically high prevalence remain priorities for victim support, and the temporal dynamics suggest that prevention efforts should proactively address long-term structural and contextual determinants.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.