Integrating Remote Sensing and Meteorological Time Series to Assess Rice Sheath Blight Habitat Suitability at Large-Scale: A Spatiotemporal Adaptive Framework

Résumé fourni par la source

Precise spatiotemporal assessment of habitat suitability is essential for crop pest and disease risk warning and food security. However, most existing approaches focus on disease occurrence, overlook spatial heterogeneity and time series information, and therefore, struggle to capture the habitat dynamics from occurrence to epidemic. We propose a dynamic framework for rice sheath blight (RSB) habitat suitability assessment that integrates rice phenology and disease time series to reveal fine-grained intra-annual spatiotemporal variability via a spatiotemporally adaptive strategy beyond the reach of traditional static models. Remote sensing and meteorological time series data, together with RSB survey data and crowdsourced records from southern China, are integrated in this study. First, the study area is partitioned into sub-regions and sensitive time windows (STWs) based on climate and rice-cropping systems. MaxEnt, combined with natural breaks, is then used to assess RSB occurrence suitability and delineate multi-level suitable areas. Geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) and the coefficient of variation (CV) are finally applied within moderate-to-high occurrence-suitability areas to reconstruct time series of intra-STW epidemic potential dynamics and quantify their temporal variation. Results indicate the optimal phenology-based scheme yields one STW for single-cropping sub-regions and three STWs for double- and mixed-cropping sub-regions. MaxEnt AUC ranges from 0.610 to 0.768, with natural-break thresholds at 0.312 and 0.473. GTWR produces generally robust intra-STW fits (most local R2 > 0.4), and the CV highlights localized, time-varying high-fluctuation zones within occurrence-suitable areas that static maps do not reveal. Overall, our method extends crop disease habitat suitability assessment from a static paradigm to a spatiotemporally adaptive, dynamic one, providing useful habitat background constraints for monitoring, early warning, and forecasting of crop pests and diseases under complex cropping systems.

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