Modeling Population Vulnerabilities to Climate Change-Driven Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the North Atlantic Basin

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Abstract Tropical cyclones are among the deadliest and costliest natural disasters in the United States, and the most intense storms are expected to become more frequent as the climate warms. Anticipating where deaths are most likely to occur is therefore central to preparedness, evacuation planning, and public health response. We modeled block-level mortality risk for twenty-four of the deadliest and costliest tropical cyclones to strike the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands between 1992 and 2024. For each storm, we combined NOAA hazard data (wind swaths, rainfall, and storm-surge inundation) with 2020 U.S. Census demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index for all Census blocks within 25 miles of the coast, and trained storm-specific boosted-tree models with population-standardized mortality as the outcome. Averaging block- level predictions within Saffir-Simpson categories yielded risk maps spanning tropical storms through Category 5 hurricanes. Predicted mortality risk rose with storm severity and concentrated in urban coastal communities of Puerto Rico, Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, as well as in low-lying inlet, peninsula, and sound geographies. Large block population, non-Hispanic composition, male-dominated blocks, predominantly white blocks, and males aged 20 to 34 years ranked among the strongest predictors of mortality — patterns that likely reflect structural factors shaping exposure rather than individual susceptibility. The category-specific risk maps and an accompanying interactive dashboard provide a practical decision-support tool for emergency managers, planners, and coastal residents preparing for future storms. Plain Language Summary Hurricanes and tropical storms are among the deadliest and costliest disasters in the United States, and climate change is expected to make the strongest storms more frequent. Knowing which communities are most likely to suffer deaths during a storm helps officials plan evacuations, strengthen buildings, and direct help where it is needed most. We combined records from twenty-four of the most damaging storms to strike the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands since 1992 with detailed information about the people living within 25 miles of the coast. For each storm, we measured rainfall, wind, and flooding, described the makeup of every neighborhood, and used a computer-learning method to estimate how at risk each small area would be. We then grouped storms by strength to map where danger is greatest for each storm category. Risk was highest in densely populated coastal cities and in low-lying inlets, peninsulas, and sounds, and it grew as storms strengthened. These maps are available in a public, interactive online dashboard so that residents, planners, and emergency managers can explore local risk and prepare before the next storm. Key Points Boosted-tree models estimate fine-scale mortality risk from tropical cyclones along the United States Atlantic and Gulf coasts Risk concentrates in urban coastal communities of Puerto Rico, Louisiana, Florida, and the Mid-Atlantic and rises with storm severity Category-specific risk maps and an interactive dashboard can guide preparedness, evacuation planning, and public health communication

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