Shippers’ demand for port services in Nigeria: A comparative analysis of Apapa and Onne ports using the analytic hierarchy process

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Purpose. This study compares shippers’ demand for port services at Nigeria’s Apapa and Onne ports, evaluating operational efficiency, safety/security, and cost of doing business as determinants of port competitiveness and sustainable port selection. Methodology. The study combines primary survey data (300 shippers) analyzed via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with secondary operational data (2005–2020) analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares regression and time-series forecasting in R. Results. Turnaround time and berth occupancy rate significantly explain vessel traffic at Apapa (R² = 0.603, p < 0.01), whereas they are not significant predictors at Onne. AHP results rank Apapa above Onne overall (0.556 vs 0.444), driven primarily by superior operational efficiency, despite Onne’s cost advantage. Theoretical contribution. The paper extends the port-competitiveness literature by jointly applying AHP and regression-based forecasting to two structurally different Nigerian hub ports, offering a replicable multi-method framework for developing-country port comparisons. Practical implications. Findings suggest that Apapa Port should prioritize reducing turnaround time and automating berth scheduling, while Onne Port needs targeted infrastructure and policy investments to close its operational efficiency gap and support more balanced, sustainable port utilization across Nigeria’s regions. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth; SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure; SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

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