Projecting dryland vegetation responses to future climate using vegetation–climate relationships derived from historical periods with and without conservation management

Résumé fourni par la source

Abstract Land management is critical for sustaining dryland ecosystems, particularly under a changing climate. While climate-driven greening trends in drylands, often measured through annual maximum vegetation, are well documented, the combined effects of land management and climate on vegetation remain poorly understood. Here, we developed two climate–vegetation models using satellite-derived annual maximum photosynthetic vegetation and climate variables: one fitted to a historical period with conservation management (CM) and one on a separate earlier period without it non-CM, applied to a grazed dryland reserve. Projections under high-(SSP5-8.5) and low-emission (SSP1-2.6) scenarios showed that CM consistently enhanced vegetation productivity, especially in wet years and under SSP5-8.5, where CO 2 fertilization may contribute. Benefits, however, were uneven: southeastern boolcoomatta (Wompinie land system) responded strongly, while Antro and Mundi showed little effect. Climate mainly regulated the magnitude of benefits, though their spatial extent could expand under high emissions and longer protection. Overall, conservation effectiveness is highly site-specific, underscoring the need for targeted strategies to strengthen dryland resilience under future climates.

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