Present-day and future global maps of non-native species richness across 17,343 islands worldwide

Résumé fourni par la source

Island biodiversity is increasingly threatened by non-native species (NNS). Yet, no global map of island NNS richness has been produced to support global threat assessments. Using a hurdle random forest model informed by 11 biogeographic and anthropogenic predictors, we predicted NNS richness for 17,343 islands for the present day and the near future (2050). Biogeographic factors were the strongest predictors of NNS establishment, while the combined influence of biogeographic and anthropogenic variables best explained the accumulation of NNS across islands once established. We found NNS richness to be greater for larger, more elevated, and more remote islands, with high human population densities and low natural habitat proportions. Models predicted 54% of islands invaded in 2020, and an increase in NNS richness for 16% of these islands by 2050. These predictions help identifying islands prone to biological invasions, both today and in the future, and thus to derive conservation prioritizations.

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