Prediction of Subsolid Pulmonary Nodule Evolution from Baseline CT Using Temporal Imaging Models

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Abstract Background Prediction of subsolid pulmonary nodule (SSN) progression from baseline CT may improve risk stratification and surveillance planning, but prior approaches have largely relied on fixed follow-up intervals. Methods This retrospective single-center study evaluated interval-aware temporal imaging models for predicting future SSN growth and morphology across heterogeneous surveillance durations. A total of 24,946 longitudinal scan pairings derived from 2,543 clinician-reviewed SSNs in 426 patients were analyzed. A discriminative deep learning model predicted interval growth from baseline CT, segmentation masks, and interscan interval information, while a temporally conditioned generative model predicted future lesion morphology. Results The discriminative model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.772 (95% confidence interval: 0.704–0.818), with sensitivity of 80.2% and specificity of 58.7% on the test cohort. The generative model predicted future lesion morphology with a Dice similarity coefficient of 0.706 ± 0.186. Prediction performance decreased with increasing follow-up duration, although both models generalized across intervals ranging from months to years. Conclusion Interval-aware temporal imaging models enable the prediction of future SSN growth and morphology from baseline CT while accounting for variable surveillance intervals. These findings suggest a framework for time-aware, personalized risk assessment that may support individualized surveillance strategies and future AI-assisted management of pulmonary adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions.

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