Long-term mortality and risk of chronic kidney disease in children following severe malaria complicated by acute kidney injury: a prospective observational study

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BACKGROUND: Paediatric acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complication of severe malaria, but its long-term outcomes remain poorly defined in low-income and middle-income countries. We aimed to evaluate the long-term association between paediatric AKI and kidney outcomes and mortality following severe malaria. METHODS: We pooled data from two prospective cohorts of Ugandan children (ie, those aged 6 months-12 years) admitted to hospital with severe malaria between 2008 and 2017. Children with stored admission blood samples available for creatinine measurement were included in the analysis. Surviving participants were enrolled in a follow-up study conducted from 2020 to 2023, when kidney function and survival were assessed, using Cox regression with age as the timescale to model mortality risk. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined as two or more consecutive low estimated glomerular filtration rates 90 days or more apart, and long-term major adverse kidney events, defined as CKD or death. Adjusted analyses included the following enrolment characteristics: age, sex, height-for-age Z score, study site, study cohort, severe malaria group (ie, cerebral malaria, severe malarial anaemia, respiratory distress, complicated seizures, or prostration), and HIV status. FINDINGS: At enrolment, the median age was 2·5 years (IQR 1·8-3·5), 622 (57·8%) of 1077 were male and 455 (42·2%) were female, with Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes-defined AKI occurring in 431 (40·0%) children. Over a median of 6·5 years (3·7-8·8), 147 (13·6%) of children died, with nearly half of deaths (71 of 147) occurring after hospital discharge. Adjusted odds of long-term major adverse kidney events were higher among children with AKI (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3·14, 95% CI 2·23-4·43), driven by a higher mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3·36, 95% CI 2·22-5·10) that remained elevated beyond 2 years after the acute episode (aHR 4·53, 1·80-11·37). AKI survivors had higher odds of chronic kidney disease over follow-up (odds ratio 1·77, 1·07-2·93), although not significant after adjustment (aOR 1·47, 95% CI 0·84-2·56; p=0·18). INTERPRETATION: In this paediatric population, AKI was associated with excess long-term mortality, suggesting AKI is a sentinel event that marks sustained vulnerability to death and highlights limitations of acute-care models in malaria-endemic settings. FUNDING: The US National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, the Fogarty International Center, the US National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and a Ralph W and Grace M Showalter Young Investigator Award.

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