Open Market Note #003 Probe — July 2026 European Imbalance Scarcity: Pre-Registered Regional Classification

Résumé fourni par la source

Pre-registered probe testing whether July 2026 balancing scarcity was Britain-specific or region-wide. The elevation threshold (15.0% of settlement time above each market's own 11-month Q90 baseline) and the classification rule (regional: GB plus ≥4 of 6 EU zones; GB-specific: GB plus ≤1) were committed to the public repository on 8 August 2026, before any July data was acquired. Measured: FR 31.8%, GB 28.8%, NL 23.3%, BE 18.8%, AT 18.4%, DK_1 17.5%, DK_2 11.3%. Five of six EU zones elevated. Verdict under the pre-registered rule: REGIONAL. The six EU bidding zones are interconnector-coupled and therefore not independent observations; the count is a descriptive tally, not a statistical test. Single-month observation (n=1). Git Provenance Note: The internal git_commit stored inside probe_verdict_report.json is 3c8354b5c6217a10de83bd60177fe396765be270 (representing the exact HEAD commit hash at evaluator execution time prior to committing report artifacts). The overarching canonical repository release HEAD commit on branch main is c4946e36f33352d792439bdb47d3c09f0bc739f6 (Pull Request #65 Merge).

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.