Future climate change reshapes agroclimatic resources and intensifies waterlogging impacts on crop production

Résumé fourni par la source

Climate change is expected to reshape agroclimatic conditions and intensify extreme weather risks in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), with major implications for wheat production in rice–wheat systems. Here, we evaluated 27 CMIP6 global climate models against observed climate records from 1980 to 2014 and selected three high-performing models to project future climate conditions under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Downscaled climate projections and agroclimatic indices were used to drive an enhanced APSIM-Wheat model incorporating waterlogging stress effects on phenology and photosynthesis. Results indicate basin-wide warming of 2.1–2.8 °C by the 2050s (2031–2070), accompanied by substantial increases in growing degree days, high-temperature days, heatwave days, consecutive wet days, and heavy rainfall events. Future hydroclimatic changes are projected to intensify waterlogging risk, particularly in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, including Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Simulated wheat yields declined substantially when waterlogging stress was considered, with basin-average losses increasing from 6.9% under the historical baseline to 10.8% under SSP585 by the 2050s. Uncertainty analysis showed that representation of waterlogging stress dominated uncertainty in projected yield levels, whereas emission scenarios explained most uncertainty in projected yield changes. These findings highlight the importance of explicitly representing waterlogging processes in crop–climate impact assessments and developing region-specific adaptation strategies.

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