Climate change vulnerability of the Afrotemperate flora on Africa’s tropical sky islands
Rattachement africain : es, no. Niveau de preuve : code pays fourni par la source.
Le résumé fourni par la source
Abstract Climate change poses a significant threat to the Afrotemperate flora of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot, particularly to species confined to high-elevation ecosystems such as those found on the African sky islands. This study evaluates the vulnerability of tropical Afroalpine and Afromontane Helichrysum taxa (Compositae) by assessing their climatic niches and predicting future shifts in distribution, range fragmentation, and altitudinal limits under climate change scenarios. Occurrence records for 14 taxa (eight Afroalpine and six Afromontane) were obtained from recent field campaigns, biodiversity databases and herbaria. Ensemble ecological niche models were developed combining Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Boosting Models, and Random Forest. Taxon-specific bioclimatic variables were selected after correlation analyses. The models were calibrated using current climate data and projected using the PSL-CM6A-LR and MRI-ESM2.0 climate models with both low- and high-emission scenarios. The results show that most Afrotemperate taxa currently occupy only a portion of their climatically suitable habitat, often in geographically distant areas. Future projections indicate significant range contractions and increased fragmentation. Afroalpine taxa could lose 50–66% of their suitable habitat, while Afromontane taxa could decline by 53–79%. Suitable areas were estimated to shift upwards in elevation, with limited potential for colonization of new areas, and with no significant latitudinal or longitudinal shifts. These findings represent the first continental-scale assessment of the impact of climate change on the Afrotemperate flora using ecological niche modelling. The projected climate-induced range losses and increased habitat fragmentation, in particular combined with increasing anthropogenic pressure in this region, highlight the urgent need for targeted conservation actions.
Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.
Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Climate change vulnerability of the Afrotemperate flora on Africa’s tropical sky islands
- Date Crossref
- 01/08/2026
- Éditeur
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Universidad Autónoma de Madrid pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Institut Botànic de Barcelona pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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University of Oslo Natural History Museum pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research Department of Urban Greening and Vegetation Ecology pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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Departamento de Biología pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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Centro de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Cambio Global pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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Systematics and Evolution of Vascular Plants pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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Calle Real pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona et Institut Botànic de Barcelona, avec 6 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.