Identifying Key Uncertainties and Drivers of Future Resource Security Outcomes Through a Multisector Scenario Ensemble

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Abstract Food, energy, and water security are key criteria in analyses of complex human‐Earth system interactions but are rarely analyzed jointly in scenario analysis of global change. Here, we generate a scenario ensemble centered around these outcomes using a global‐scale multisector model that simulates critical interactions across multiple sectors. We consider a wide range of future uncertainties in both physical and societal factors, including population, economics, alternative scenarios of future carbon intensity, and land conservation. We evaluate each scenario by computing both regional and subregional resource security outcomes and identify the uncertainties and key drivers that lead to the outcomes of interest. We find that lower‐income subgroups face higher burdens and more uncertain outcomes, and that drivers of resource security outcomes are heterogeneous across regions. Ultimately, our approach can help identify scenarios that can facilitate high‐priority research on resource security outcomes, especially in multisector contexts.

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