Trends and seasonal patterns in suicide and traffic accident mortality among youth in Hungary, 2000–2024: a nationwide population-based study

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Abstract Background External causes of death represent the leading causes of mortality among adolescents and young adults. This study aimed to investigate long-term, seasonal patterns, and regional disparities in mortality from external causes among individuals aged 15–24 years in Hungary between 2000 and 2024, including comparisons between the pre-pandemic (2000–2019) and pandemic (2020–2024) periods. Methods Nationwide data on monthly and annual mortality from external causes (ICD-10: V01–Y89) were obtained from the Dissemination Database of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office for 2000–2024. Analyses focused on the two leading causes of external mortality in this age group: suicide and self-harm (X60–X84, Y87.0) and traffic accidents (V01–V99). Mortality rates were calculated using corresponding population data stratified by sex, age group, and region. Annual and seasonal trends were analysed using negative binomial regression models with population offsets. Results are presented as incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Results Between 2000 and 2024, 7,209 deaths from external causes were recorded among individuals aged 15–24 years (79% males). Significant declining trends were observed in overall external-cause mortality (IRR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96–0.97; p < 0.001), suicide (IRR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97–0.98; p < 0.001), and traffic accident mortality (IRR = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.94–0.95; p < 0.001). Seasonal variation was significant for overall external-cause mortality, with a peak in July ( p < 0.001), and for suicide and traffic accident mortality, peaking in May ( p < 0.001) and August ( p < 0.001), respectively. Regional disparities were pronounced, with the highest mortality rates consistently observed in the Southern Great Plain region. Mortality patterns during the COVID-19 period did not substantially deviate from pre-pandemic trends. Conclusions Although mortality from external causes among Hungarian youth declined significantly over the past 25 years, substantial gender and regional inequalities persist. The marked summer peak in traffic accident mortality and the elevated risk in specific regions highlight the need for targeted, seasonally sensitive prevention strategies.

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