Kidney function and kidney failure prediction in a large multiethnic population

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Background: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) experience worsening kidney function and develop subsequent kidney failure at different rates. Accurate estimates of a patient's current and future kidney function are needed for optimal clinical decision-making. Methods: To compare current and previously recommended equations for estimating kidney function and risk of kidney failure across a large multiethnic population, we conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study of primary care, acute care, and hospital settings. Our study population comprised 1,909,042 adults with at least one recorded serum creatinine measurement during 2012-2014, with follow-up until January 2025. Our primary outcomes were the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and prevalence of CKD by stage across regions of origin. Findings: GFR estimates from the two race-stratified equations (2006 MDRD and 2009 CKD-EPI) were similarly calibrated. GFR estimates from the two race-neutral equations diverged, with 2021 EKFC producing lower GFR estimates and 2021 CKD-EPI producing higher GFR estimates compared to prior equations. The oldest equation, 2006 MDRD, was the most discriminative of kidney failure within 5 years while the newer European equation, 2021 EKFC, was the least discriminative, with AUROCs of 0.862 (95% CI, 0.855-0.869) and 0.846 (95% CI, 0.838-0.853), respectively. The age-adjusted prevalence of CKD varied by the choice of eGFR equation (ranging from 8.5% for 2021 CKD-EPI to 10.8% for EKFC) and across regions of birth (ranging from 8.9% for East Sub-Saharan Africa to 15.3% for South Asia). Interpretation: Using 10 years of follow-up for nearly 2 million individuals, our study demonstrates how newly developed US and European equations diverge from previously recommended equations with broad clinical and epidemiological implications.

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