Seeds of change: Global megatrends will shape the future trajectory of plant invasions

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Abstract Global megatrends are large–scale, long–term shifts that shape environmental and societal change and provide a novel lens for anticipating future biological invasions. Using expert elicitation, we assessed how 15 megatrends may influence the arrival, establishment, spread, and impact of alien plant invasions by 2050. Most megatrends were expected to increase invasion risks, particularly by accelerating species arrival and spread. Megatrends clustered into four gigatrends: Anthropocene, Digital, Societal, and Technology. In the Anthropocene, invasion threats will escalate through increased global trade and climate–driven range shifts. Digital driven e-commerce and misinformation further elevate risks, whereas an aging society reduces the Societal capacity for managing invasive plants. Despite advances in Technology potentially abating plant invasions through improved detection and control tools, significant adoption barriers remain. Invasion scientists must urgently help policymakers recognize that, although future megatrends will amplify plant invasions, decisive engagement can still steer trajectories toward mitigating this growing global threat.

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