Preregistration — Two Weakly Coupled Hemispheric Heat Engines: Synchronization, Granger Lags and Rossby Resonances across the 2026–27 ENSO Event (v1.3, FR+EN)

Résumé fourni par la source

Preregistration (analysis plan frozen before data) for the 2026–27 ENSO event: three falsifiable hypothesis chains (fast Pacific chain; slow Atlantic chain; inter-hemispheric coupling via synchronization and seasonally modulated Granger lags), exploratory annexes (bicoherence/combination tones, phase slips, large-scale helicity as a topological-event dating instrument, Iberian-Saharan pillar), dual climatological null models with a frozen drift-vs-jump reading grid, and pre-declared decision criteria including a maintained false/null distinction. Independent researcher; bilingual FR+EN deposit; the French text prevails. Any later version will be documented by numbered changelog before the first mature-phase datum.

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