Supporting information - The projected risk of plant invasions on the peri-Antarctic islands under climate change

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S1. Size (km2), jurisdiction or dependency, elevation (m) and present, eradicated, and recorded (present + eradicated) alien plant species of the 12 peri-Antarctic islands included in the study (Leihy et al. 2023). S2. True-skill statistic (TSS), sensitivity, and specificity for each species and model. S3. Plots of variable importance of all variables in the three models, averaged across all species. S4. Value ranges of variables on the peri-Antarctic islands used in the three models. Derived from Karger et al. 2017. S5. Projected percentages of suitable cells for all 2,220 species for recent climatic conditions and each GCM x scenario combination, with growth form information. Both uncorrected and corrected (with exclusion of cells outside the clamping mask) projections are provided for each of the variable sets. S6. Projected percentages of suitable cells for all 2,220 species for recent climatic conditions and each GCM x scenario combination, with growth form information. Both uncorrected and corrected (with exclusion of cells outside the clamping mask) projections are provided. The percentages of cells for which each three variable sets agree on suitability are given (i.e., consensus projections). S7. Projected percentages of suitable cells for species established on the respective peri-Antarctic islands for recent climatic conditions and each GCM x scenario combination, with growth form information. Both uncorrected and corrected (with exclusion of cells outside the clamping mask) projections are provided. The percentages of cells for which each three variable sets agree on suitability are given (i.e., consensus projections) (Leihy et al. 2023). S8. Ratio of change in suitable cells, as compared to projections under recent climatic conditions, for each GCM and scenario combination. Ratios for both uncorrected and corrected (with exclusion of cells outside the clamping mask) projections are provided. Ratios of suitability are calculated as the amount of suitable cells, divided by the total cells. The ratio of change is subsequently calculated by subtracting the ratio of each GCM x scenario combination by the ratio of projections under recent climate. S9. Results of the factorial ANOVA assessing the effects of General Circulation Model (GCM), climate change scenario, and species distribution model on predicted climate suitability for alien plant species in the peri-Antarctic. The analysis includes both corrected and uncorrected projections. Significant main effects and interactions are observed for all factors, with the strongest effect from model (i.e., variable set) choice. S10. Mean, minimum, and maximum Jaccard similarity of projected species assemblages between the nine different climate change scenario and GCM combinations, per island. S11. List of high-risk alien plant species that are projected to find suitability on the peri-Antarctic islands under all future corrected projections (i.e. all climate change scenario and GCM combinations). Codes indicate whether each species is already recorded on the island according to Leihy et al. (2023): PR = projected suitable and recorded, P = projected suitable but not recorded present, and R = recorded but not projected suitable. Records listed as ‘failed to establish or died out’ were excluded from the comparison. Empty cells indicate that the species was not classified as high-risk for that island. S12. Comparison of recent-climate projections (1981–2010) with alien plant species recorded on the 12 study islands. Species were classified for each island under recent climatic conditions according to whether they were projected suitable and recorded (PR), projected suitable but not recorded (P), or recorded but not projected suitable (R), based on the alien species checklist of Leihy et al. (2023). Records listed as ‘failed to establish or died out’ were excluded from the comparison. Classifications are shown for corrected and uncorrected projections. Empty cells indicate that the species was neither projected suitable nor recorded for that island. S13. Count of growth forms projected on each of the peri-Antarctic islands, for each GCM and scenario combination. The ratio of woody to herbaceous species is provided. S14. Plot showing the projected number of alien woody species on the peri-Antarctic islands, for each GCM and scenario combination. S15. Estimated Marginal Means (EMM) of the GLMM of woody alien plant species suitability for scenario and GCM, and their combinations. S16. Contrasts of Estimated Marginal Means (EMM) of the GLMM of woody alien plant species suitability between each GCM and scenarios, and their combinations.

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