From global trends to local microclimates: Assessing NOAA Coral Reef Watch alerts and ECOSTRESS thermal imagery in Belize

Le résumé fourni par la source

Coral reefs are vital global ecosystems and are severely impacted by rising ocean temperatures, culminating in four global bleaching events, including the most recent in 2023-2024. This study employs a multi-scale nested analysis approach, combining observed bleaching and satellite thermal stress alerts using a global database (n=34,498) of coral surveys (1985-2020) and recent coral survey data (n=150) from Belize (2023-2024). We found that while NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) alerts generally correlate with bleaching severity, there were instances of severe bleaching occurring under "No Stress" alerts. By leveraging high-resolution ECOSTRESS Land Surface Temperature (LST) imagery alongside CRW data, we identified thermal microclimates within Belizean Marine Protected Areas that exceeded site-specific Maximum Monthly Mean (MMM) thresholds by up to 2.29°C, compared to a narrower anomaly range of 0.88-1.04°C captured by CRW SST over the same period. These localized heat stress events, which occur at spatial scales below CRW's 5km resolution, demonstrate the complementary value of high-resolution thermal data for reef-scale management, while CRW's operational daily coverage remains essential for tracking sustained heat stress.

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