Limestone Coast state-and-transition models of the agricultural zone: flooding red gum woodland, lowland resprouting woodland and sedgelands
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This report presents regional State-and-Transition Models for three ecological systems of the Limestone Coast in south-eastern South Australia: flooding red gum woodland, lowland resprouting woodland and sedgelands. The models describe ecosystem condition states, degradation and recovery pathways, and the ecological drivers and management actions that influence transitions among states.The STMs were developed through literature review, analysis of South Australian pre-European vegetation mapping, preparation of draft conceptual models, and a two-day expert workshop held in February 2026. Workshop participants included regional ecologists, land managers and vegetation specialists with expertise in agricultural land-use history, wetland hydrology, restoration and native vegetation condition. Participants reviewed and refined condition-state definitions, ecological attributes, transition pathways and management interventions.The report is intended as a practical decision-support resource for ecological condition assessment, conservation planning, restoration, spatial mapping, monitoring and future elicitation of transition probabilities and biodiversity responses. The models are expert-informed conceptual frameworks and should be applied alongside field validation, local ecological knowledge and consideration of site-specific conditions and uncertainty.The State-and-Transition Models are intended to support emerging biodiversity assessment and decision-support needs associated with the Australian Government’s Nature Repair Market. Through the Ecological Knowledge System being developed by CSIRO and the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, regional ecological models such as these can help provide transparent evidence about ecosystem condition, likely transition pathways, management actions and expected biodiversity outcomes.The expert-elicitation component of this research was approved by the La Trobe University Human Research Ethics Committee under approval HEC25446. All participants provided informed consent for their contributions to be used in developing and reporting the models.This report contains expert-elicited ecological and land-management knowledge relating to the Limestone Coast region. It does not contain restricted cultural information and should not be interpreted as representing Traditional Owner knowledge, authority or decision-making. The models are conceptual decision-support tools and should be applied alongside field validation, local ecological knowledge and consideration of site-specific conditions and uncertainty.
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