Trends in the Incidence of Kaposi Sarcoma among Adults Attending HIV Care Facilities in East Africa and Latin America in the Treat-All Era

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Background: In resource-rich regions, such as the U.S. and Europe, the incidence of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) amongst persons living with HIV (PWH) has dramatically declined with the advent of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). In contrast, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), much less is known, particularly since the World Health Organization's recommendation in late 2015 to use ART in all PWH. We take advantage of the coincident electronic clinical data capture at HIV care facilities to estimate the incidence of KS among PWH in care with ready access to ART, piloting a data validation approach to address errors in these routine clinic data. Methods: We evaluated PWH enrolled from January 2010 to December 2019 in 13 HIV care clinics in 8 countries participating in the East Africa (EA-IeDEA) and Caribbean, Central and South America (CCASAnet) regions of the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium. Selected measurements were validated via chart review on a subset of PWH, and we estimated KS incidence in both unvalidated and validated data via generalized raking techniques. Results: A total of 235,474 PWH from EA-IeDEA and 19,683 from CCASAnet gave rise to 719 and 103 incident cases of KS, respectively. A total of 824 eligible records were validated. ART use was substantially lower in EA-IeDEA than CCASAnet in 2010 but equalized by 2019. From 2010 to 2019, KS incidence decreased on average 21% per year (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.79; 95% CI 0.75-0.82) in EA-IeDEA but only 6% (IRR=0.94; 95% CI 0.83-1.06) in CCASAnet. Conclusions: Among PWH attending HIV care facilities in East Africa, we observed a trend suggesting a reduction in KS incidence that paralleled increased Treat All era ART use in these clinics. In the Caribbean, Central and South America, there was hardly a change in the incidence, despite high-frequency ART use in the region as well.

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