AI adoption induces divergent net energy changes across economic sectors

Résumé fourni par la source

Energy planning for artificial intelligence focuses on data-centre electricity, missing the induced operational energy change caused by the deployment of AI in commercial buildings, factories and freight networks. Here we map occupation-level AI exposure onto sector energy use and apply a Monte Carlo (MC) joint supply-demand decomposition to estimate each sector's net energy change. Our results show that the US adoption-side energy envelope -- the operational energy exposed to AI -- is 12.1 Q theoretical and ~1.4 Q observed (1 Q is approximately 293 TWh, summed across electricity, gas, petroleum and process fuels); this measures the scope of exposed energy, not consumption. Decomposing this envelope at full adoption reveals divergent sector net signs: Commercial saves 0.22 Q while Industrial (+1.25 Q) and Transport (+1.12 Q) increase, each sign robust across 88-99% of parameter draws. The induced net change aggregates to +2.16 Q (90% MC range [+0.52, +4.12]; +1.1 Q under a conservative price-channel conversion of the rebound anchors) -- several times the ~0.6 Q of current US data-centre electricity that AI energy planning targets. These net changes vary geographically when projected onto each state's occupational and energy end-use mix. Industrial- and freight-heavy states (Texas, Louisiana, Indiana) primarily carry the increase, while commercial-dominated states (New York, Massachusetts, DC) see substantially smaller net changes. We also transfer the analysis to the UK and show an energy envelope of 1.9 Q out of a 3.7 Q national total. Therefore, adoption-side energy is the larger, geographically variable component of AI's footprint, requiring end-use energy surveys to track AI deployment and the resulting task and occupational shifts alongside compute-side forecasting.

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