Agricultural development and food production in East Africa: The role of water availability, environmental degradation, and institutional quality

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ABSTRACT Food production remains a fundamental concern across East African economies where agriculture sustains livelihoods, supports rural employment, and supplies the majority of domestically consumed food. Despite its vital significance, agricultural production in the region continues to face constraints associated with limited investment, water scarcity, environmental pressures, and institutional conditions. Accordingly, this study examines the determinants of food production across 15 East African countries over the period 2002–2022. As major factors influencing food production, the analysis focuses on agricultural development, water availability, environmental degradation, and institutional quality. A heterogeneous panel framework is employed to examine long- and short-run dynamics. Diagnostic tests indicate cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. The analysis applies the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model using the pooled mean group (PMG) and mean group (MG) estimators, with FMOLS and DOLS used for robustness checks. The findings indicate that agricultural development and water availability exhibit strong positive associations with food production across the region. Agricultural employment and cultivated land also contribute positively to food production within East African agricultural systems. Environmental degradation does not display a statistically significant effect on food production in the estimated models. Neverthless, institutional quality reveals a negative long-run relationship but a positive short-run association with food production. The robustness checks confirm the stability of the estimated relationships across alternative estimation techniques. Consequently, the findings indicate the need to strengthen agricultural investment, expand irrigation and water management, integrate environmental considerations into agricultural planning, and enhance institutional coordination in agricultural governance across East Africa.