Assessing global factors associated with tropical cyclone-related mortality: A population-based longitudinal study
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Le résumé fourni par la source
BACKGROUND: The underlying factors associated with the substantial global tropical cyclone (TC)-related mortality burden, characterized by its highly variable spatiotemporal patterns, remain unclear. We aimed to identify and assess the key factors associated with TC-related mortality on a global scale. METHODS: We collected mortality records from 2034 locations in 68 countries/territories across five continents (2000-2019) to identify and assess the key factors associated with TC-related mortality on a global scale. Bayesian ensemble models were applied to estimate the associated mortality for each TC event in each location. A random forest regression (RFR) model was employed to assess the relative statistical importance of TC and location characteristics, as well as their interactions, regarding the TC-related mortality. FINDINGS: For TC physical characteristics, the TC-associated cumulative rainfall consistently exhibited stronger influence on mortality than TC-induced surge-driven flood depth or maximum sustained windspeed. However, sociodemographic factors, including population traits (e.g., population density, proportion of the population aged ≤ 9 years, percent of the population aged ≥ 65 years) and socioeconomic and infrastructure development (e.g., built-up ratio), showed greater relative importance than the TC physical attributes and accounted for the majority of the explained variations in TC-related mortality. Furthermore, cumulative rainfall interacted strongly with local sociodemographic conditions and was potentially the most important associated factor for disparities in mortality arising from factor interactions. INTERPRETATION: The findings highlight the critical role of sociodemographic factors in explaining the global spatiotemporal variability of TC-related mortality, surpassing the relative importance of TC intensity. TC-related rainfall could be a key associated physical factor of the global mortality burden.
Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.
Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Assessing global factors associated with tropical cyclone-related mortality: A population-based longitudinal study
- Date Crossref
- 01/08/2026
- Éditeur
- Elsevier BV
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisation à but non lucratif
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University of Hong Kong pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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University of Otago Department of Public Health pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Monash University pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Chongqing Emergency Medical Center pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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Chongqing Public Health Medical Center pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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Yale University pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Fudan University pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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University of Florence Department of Statistics pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Harvard University pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, University of Hong Kong et Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, avec 9 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.