Daily Runoff Prediction Using a BiLSTM–XGBoost Residual-Correction Framework with SHAP-Based Hydrological Interpretation in the Andi Reservoir Basin, China

Le résumé fourni par la source

Accurate daily runoff prediction is essential for flood control, reservoir operation, and scientific water resources management. However, runoff processes are increasingly affected by climate change and human activities, leading to pronounced nonlinearity and nonstationarity that limit the performance of single data-driven models. This study aims to improve the reliability and hydrological credibility of daily runoff prediction by systematically evaluating recurrent neural network (RNN) structures and explicitly modeling prediction residuals. Three commonly used RNN architectures—long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM)—are systematically compared for daily runoff prediction in the Andi Reservoir watershed under identical hydrometeorological conditions. Based on the comparative results, BiLSTM is selected as the base model to capture dominant temporal dependencies. To further address systematic prediction errors under complex hydrological conditions, a residual-learning framework is constructed by integrating BiLSTM with extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), in which XGBoost is employed to model and correct the nonlinear residuals of BiLSTM predictions. In addition, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method is applied to interpret the contributions of input variables and to examine the learning mechanisms of both the base model and the residual-correction stage. Results indicate that BiLSTM performs better than LSTM and GRU for daily runoff prediction and that residual correction using XGBoost further enhances prediction accuracy and robustness, particularly under nonstationary conditions and peak-flow scenarios. The contribution of this study lies in providing a systematic modeling framework that combines model comparison, residual learning, and interpretability analysis to support more reliable daily runoff prediction in complex watersheds.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.