Genetically Proxied Inhibition of Cholesterol-Lowering Drug Targets and Survival in HPV-Positive and Non–HPV-Driven Head and Neck Cancer: A Multicentre MR Study

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BACKGROUND: Cholesterol pathways may influence head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) progression, but evidence on prognosis is inconsistent. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to test whether genetically proxied inhibition of major low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering drug targets and circulating lipid traits affects overall survival (OS) in HPV-positive and non-HPV-driven HNSCCs. METHODS: We proxied lifelong LDL-C lowering using 55 cis-acting single-nucleotide polymorphisms in HMGCR, NPC1L1, PCSK9, and LDL-receptor (LDLR) from the updated 2021 Global Lipids Genetics Consortium and instrumented circulating lipid traits. Two-sample MR estimated effects on OS in 4,869 multicentre HNSCC cases (1,291 HPV-positive; 3,578 non-HPV-driven) using minimally adjusted Cox models. Sensitivity analyses additionally adjusted for tumor stage and treatment, assessed collider bias using an external HNSCC incidence genome-wide association study, and examined between-center heterogeneity and colocalization. RESULTS: Using the updated Global Lipids Genetic Consortium 2021 instruments, genetically proxied HMGCR inhibition showed a directionally protective but nonsignificant association with OS in HPV-positive oropharyngeal HNSCC in the primary analysis [inverse variance weighted (IVW) HR = 0.19; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.03-1.18; P = 0.08], with directionally concordant weighted median results. No corresponding protective association was observed for HMGCR in non-HPV-driven disease (IVW HR = 1.68; 95% CI, 0.78-3.63; P = 0.19). No clear evidence of association was observed for NPC1L1, PCSK9, LDLR, or circulating lipid traits in either HPV stratum. Colocalization did not support a shared causal variant. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses provide suggestive evidence that genetically proxied HMGCR inhibition may influence survival in HPV-positive oropharyngeal HNSCC. IMPACT: HMGCR-related pathways may be relevant to prognosis in HPV-positive oropharyngeal HNSCC, whereas clear survival effects of other cholesterol-lowering targets were not supported.

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