Spatial effects of multidimensional agricultural industrial structure on agricultural economic resilience—an empirical study based on Northeast China

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This paper takes panel data of 40 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China from 2001 to 2024 and, based on the core variable method, constructs a prefecture-level index of agricultural economic resilience. The spatial Durbin model is then employed to examine, from a multidimensional and progressive perspective, the spatial effects of agricultural industrial structure on agricultural economic resilience. The main findings are as follows. First, agricultural economic resilience in Northeast China exhibits significant spatiotemporal linkage, with spatial dependence remaining weak in normal times but becoming markedly activated during shock periods. Second, the effects of industrial structure are strongly hierarchical and heterogeneous: planting specialization robustly enhances local resilience, whereas the marginal effect of grain specialization has approached saturation. Third, specialization in the three major grain crops displays pronounced variety heterogeneity—maize specialization weakens local resilience, soybean specialization shows a two-way effect of negative local impact but positive spatial spillover, and rice specialization generates significant negative spatial spillovers on neighboring cities. Fourth, grain crop diversification robustly strengthens local resilience, while the agricultural product processing industry exerts significant negative spatial spillovers. These results indicate that resilience building in major grain-producing areas cannot be reduced to the simple logic of “specialization versus diversification,” but requires the coordinated optimization of crop structure and the upgrading of the industrial chain. Accordingly, this study recommends consolidating the comparative advantage of planting while guarding against the structural risks of excessive grain orientation, establishing market-risk hedging mechanisms for major maize-producing areas, strengthening cross-regional technological-spillover coordination under the soybean revitalization strategy, incorporating spatial externalities into the layout of major rice-producing areas, guiding the processing industry from scale expansion toward quality improvement and structural optimization, and integrating crop diversification into the regional policy toolkit, thereby providing empirical support for optimizing the agricultural industrial layout of Northeast China and safeguarding national food security.

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