Plurality in transformative change: three co-created pathways toward nature-positive Europe(s)

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1. The accelerating decline of biodiversity necessitates transformative change to protect nature and society, requiring innovative actions and governance strategies. This paper focuses on developing diverse transformative pathways for biodiversity in Europe and advancing methodologies for co-creating these pathways to inform such actions and governance strategies in a transformative and anticipatory manner. 2. Three distinct pathways for a nature-positive Europe from 2024 to 2050 were co-created with 23 participants during a 2.5-day workshop, through backcasting and by using the Nature Futures Framework. Post-workshop interviews with nine participants helped map their understanding of transformative change and its connection to the pathways. The pathways and interviews were then analysed to understand the main patterns of change in the pathways. 3. The analysis identifies distinct patterns of transformative change, each shaped by participants’ views on how change might unfold over time, as reflected in pathway actions and milestones. The first pathway, called Dòigh Nàdair, centres on the institutionalisation of biocultural principles, community stewardship, and redistribution toward rural economies, with early emphasis on phasing out unsustainable practices, shifting societal norms through education, and later embedding polycentric and watershed-based governance. The second, NaturAll, focuses on sufficiency and ecological limits, combining restrictive regulation with participatory programmes, progressive caps and land reallocation, and staged policy development from pilots to broader implementation. The third, Return to Nature, emphasises strengthened governmental mandates, expert consultation, and the mainstreaming of climate and biodiversity goals through innovation and coordinated governance, with crises reinforcing support for reform. 4. The pathways demonstrate how diverse patterns and understandings of transformative change can result in a range of desired nature-positive futures, effectively turning concepts of transformative change into practical actions. The techniques employed in creating these pathways play a crucial role in shaping the results, necessitating intentional design that aligns with specific objectives. This highlights the importance of developing plural pathways to investigate multiple potential nature-positive futures, all while preserving a strong sense of ambition and urgency for transformative action.