Macroeconomic and Structural Drivers of Agricultural Export Performance in Somalia: Evidence from ARDL, FMOLS, and DOLS Models

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This study examines the determinants of agricultural export performance in Somalia using annual time-series data. Specifically, the study investigates the effects of agricultural land, fertilizer use, domestic investment, and internal conflict on agricultural exports. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to estimate both long-run and short-run relationships, while Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) were used to assess the robustness of the long-run estimates. The ARDL long-run results reveal that agricultural land, domestic investment, and fertilizer use exert positive and statistically significant effects on agricultural export performance, whereas internal conflict has a negative but statistically insignificant effect