Climate-driven habitat shifts reveal contrasting climate association of four Stipa species in Central Asia

Le résumé fourni par la source

Climate change is reshaping global plant biogeography, and understanding the distribution dynamics of dominant species is critical for sustainable ecosystem management. Stipa species dominate the grasslands of Central Asia, constitute a major component of regional steppe ecosystems, and provide essential forage resources for livestock production. Four constructive Stipa species sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes ( S. breviflora , S. bungeana , S. grandis , and S. klemenzii ) were selected for analysis. Current and future habitat suitability and distribution trends were predicted using the ensemble modeling framework in Biomod2 (ensemble AUC/TSS > 0.9; individual model selection based on TSS > 0.8). Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat centroids of all four species were projected to shift westward. The warm- and dry-adapted S. breviflora exhibited a relatively stable distribution range, with its changes being primarily driven by elevation. In contrast, the warm- and humid-adapted S. bungeana showed a continuous northwestward expansion, mainly influenced by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter. Conversely, the cold- and humid-adapted S. grandis and cold- and dry-adapted S. klemenzii , were predicted to experience significant habitat contraction under future climate scenarios. The distributions of both species were primarily influenced by precipitation during the coldest quarter. Overall, cold-adapted species such as S. grandis and S. klemenzii are expected to be more vulnerable to future climate change, despite a gradual slowdown in the rate of suitable habitat contraction over time. Therefore, grassland conservation and management in Central Asia should dynamically adjust conservation priorities, with greater attention given to the contraction and migration trends of these cold-adapted species in order to enhance ecosystem stability and adaptive capacity.

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