Group model-building approach to understand the dynamics and identifying entry points to build resilience in the groundnut value chain in Senegal

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Introduction: Senegal's groundnut value chain covers approximately 1.25 million hectares and underpins the food security and livelihoods of a large rural population. Yet it is beset by persistent structural constraints across both supply and demand dimensions, including weak seed systems, fragmented input delivery, volatile prices, low processing capacity utilization, and climate-driven production risks, that limit its efficiency, inclusiveness, and resilience. Methods: This study combined large-scale primary data collection with a participatory Group Model Building (GMB) approach. A baseline household survey was conducted with 503 groundnut farmers across 18 villages in the peanut basin of Senegal (regions of Kaffrine, Louga, and Thiès), supplemented by 20 Focus Group Discussions and Key Informant Interviews with processors, traders, government representatives, cooperatives, and research institutions. Two GMB workshops were facilitated in Dakar in March and April 2023, convening 14 participants representing diverse value chain stakeholders. Causal Loop Diagrams were developed iteratively through structured elicitation, plenary validation, and post-workshop verification to map feedback structures and identify leverage points. Results: The household survey identified poor access to quality seed (86.77% of respondents), climate-related crop losses (75.88%), unstable market prices (79.96%), and high fertilizer costs (47.67%) as the most prevalent constraints. The GMB process revealed these challenges as components of self-reinforcing feedback loops: a low-productivity trap in the seed system rooted in insufficient ISRA breeder seed capacity; a processor marginalization loop driven by Chinese trader dominance that diverts raw material away from SONACOS (operating at 35-40% capacity); and a cross-sectoral institutional misalignment trap in which subsidy capture, weak seed quality enforcement, and misaligned export policies operate as mutually reinforcing barriers. Discussion: Policy pathways emerging from GMB deliberations include strengthening ISRA's breeder seed capacity; reforming fertilizer subsidy delivery through cooperatives; expanding scale-appropriate mechanization; integrating climate information services; establishing price stabilization mechanisms; and introducing dynamic export regulation to balance farmer income with domestic processor viability. Underpinning all recommendations is the need for a coordinated governance structure that addresses institutional misalignments and enables equitable, resilient, and sustainable growth across Senegal's groundnut value chain.

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