Grain production and farmers’ income in China: evidence of regional divergence and a productivity–income disconnect

Le résumé fourni par la source

Grain production plays a vital role in China’s food security strategy, but its implications for farmers’ income remain insufficiently understood. Based on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces over the period 2006–2024, this study examines the income effects of grain production intensity and their regional heterogeneity. To control for unobserved provincial differences and shocks that happen at specific times, a two-way fixed effects model is used. And an instrumental variable approach based on land endowment and lagged grain sown area is used to address potential endogeneity. The results show that grain production has no significant average effect on farmers’ income at the national level. However, clear regional heterogeneity effect. Grain production has a positive income effect in non-major grain-producing regions, but a negative effect in major grain-producing regions. Further mechanism analysis reveals that grain production improves production efficiency, as measured by grain yield per unit area, but these productivity gains are not fully translated into higher income in major producing regions. This finding suggests a productivity–income disconnect under structural and institutional constraints. This study contributes to the literature by distinguishing the heterogeneous income effects of grain production across regions and by identifying the productivity–income disconnect as a key mechanism explaining why higher grain production does not necessarily improve farmers’ livelihoods.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.