Occupational safety challenges in Serbia: A longitudinal analysis of injury trends and forecasts (2015-2027)

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This study examines the dynamics of occupational safety in the Republic of Serbia over a ten-year period (2015-2024). Utilizing official data from the Ministry of Labour and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the research employs descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and Holt's linear trend model to analyze the relationship between employment growth and injury rates. The results indicate a significant deterioration in workplace safety, with the incidence rate nearly doubling from 36.64 in 2015 to 67.03 per 100,000 employees in 2024. A very strong positive correlation (r = 0.894) was found between workforce expansion and injury frequency, suggesting that economic growth has outpaced the development of safety protocols. Furthermore, the Holt model forecasts a continued upward trajectory for the 2025-2027 period. These findings highlight a critical "implementation gap" between legislative modernization and practical safety outcomes, emphasizing the urgent need for a more robust enforcement of occupational health and safety (OSH) standards.

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