Integrated multi-hazard vulnerability and risk assessment in the Hindu Kush Mountains of Northern Pakistan: Challenges and recommendations

Résumé fourni par la source

Despite the increasing occurrence of multiple interacting hazards in the Hindu Kush Mountains, integrated multi-hazard assessments that systematically combine hazard, exposure, and vulnerability while accounting for differential hazard significance remain limited. The district of Chitral, located in the Hindu Kush Mountains of northern Pakistan, exhibits a rugged physiography, characterized by snow-covered mountains, glacier-fed valleys, and steep, highly unstable slopes, making it one of the most hazard-prone regions where earthquakes, floods, landslides, debris flows, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) interact and produce cascading impacts. Open-source remote sensing data, field observations, and geospatial analysis within a GIS framework allow for an integrated Multi-Hazard Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (MHVRA) for Chitral. Individual hazard assessments were conducted for earthquakes, riverine floods, landslides, debris flows, and GLOFs using hazard-specific datasets and analytical methods. These hazards were spatially integrated using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), incorporating impact, frequency, and a proxy indicator of cascading potential to derive a Composite Multi-Hazard Index (CMHI). While the framework does not explicitly simulate dynamic hazard interactions, it provides a structured spatial representation of relative multi-hazard significance for regional-scale risk screening. Exposure analysis was performed using a spatial database of elements at risk, including buildings, roads, land cover, population, and critical facilities derived from high-resolution satellite imagery and census data. Vulnerability was assessed at the Union Council level using an indicator-based Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) that combines physical and social vulnerability indicators. The integration of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability produced spatially explicit multi-hazard risk maps identifying priority risk zones across the district. Results indicate that the southern and southwestern parts of Chitral experience the highest multi-hazard intensity due to the combined influence of active tectonics, steep terrain, dense drainage networks, and concentrated settlements along valley floors. Union Councils such as Arrandu, Drosh-1, Ayun, and Shesh Koh exhibit the highest risk levels due to the concurrence of high hazard exposure and elevated socio-economic vulnerability. This comprehensive geospatial framework allows for identifying multi-hazard hotspots and supports evidence-based disaster risk reduction, land-use planning, and climate adaptation strategies in mountainous regions.

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