Enhanced food security under global change requires a tritrophic perspective

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Oral presentation given on 4 February 2026 at the 3rd International Crop Modelling Symposium (iCROPM2026) dedicated to “Crop Modelling for Agriculture and Food Security under Global Change”, which took place in Florence, Italy, from 2 to 4 February 2026. https://icropm2026.org/ Global change is altering the relationships between crops, pests, and natural enemies, and accelerating the spread of destructive invasive species. These changes pose a significant threat to agricultural production and food security worldwide (Cuthbert et al., 2022). Current risk assessment strategies often rely on correlative species distribution models (CSDMs) that lack the capacity to predict the complex, weather-driven population dynamics essential for informing robust management and policy development. To bridge this gap, a mechanistic framework using physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) was proposed (Gutierrez and Baumgärtner, 1984). This framework posits that by capturing the fundamental, weather-driven biology of resource acquisition and allocation at each trophic level, we can develop powerful, predictive models of crop systems that are independent of time and place, providing a sound basis for proactive crop management. A web platform is proposed to assist non-experts in formulating PBDMs to help solve agroecological pest problems (Gutierrez et al., 2025).

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