Trade competitiveness of Namibia’s crop sector: A relative trade advantage analysis (2003–2022)

Résumé fourni par la source

Agricultural competitiveness is fundamental to Namibia’s pursuit of sustainable growth, export diversification, and food security in a highly climate-constrained production environment. This study assesses the trade competitiveness of Namibia’s crop sector over the period 2003–2022 using the Relative Trade Advantage (RTA) index, which integrates export and import performance (RTA = RXA − RMA). Trade data were sourced from the International Trade Centre (ITC) and FAOSTAT databases and averaged over three-year intervals to smooth short-term volatility and capture structural trends. The analysis covered cereals, vegetables, fruits, and selected milled products. The results indicate persistent trade advantages in grapes, onions, and maize flour, reflecting gains in irrigated horticulture and agroprocessing. In contrast, cereals such as wheat and millet remain structurally uncompetitive because of recurrent droughts, limited irrigation capacity, high input costs, and continued dependence on imports. Although competitiveness in some subsectors has improved over time, performance remains uneven and climate-sensitive. The findings suggest that targeted policy interventions, particularly the Market Share Promotion Scheme (MSPS), irrigation expansion under the Green Scheme, and investments in cold-chain and storage infrastructure, positively influenced horticultural competitiveness. However, strengthening cereal competitiveness requires productivity-enhancing technologies, climate-resilient production systems, and deeper integration along the value chain. Sustained public–private coordination will be critical to enhancing trade resilience and reducing Namibia’s structural dependence on food imports.