Cross-seasonal linkages between the autumn Antarctic oscillation and subsequent soybean yield in China

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Abstract Given China’s pivotal role in the global soybean trade market, understanding how climate variability affects China’s soybean production is critical for the nation’s strategic planning in food security and agricultural policies. Our research analyzes the relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and soybean yield in China. By employing statistical methods, we identified a significant positive correlation between AAO in the autumn (August–October) of the year before harvest and China’s soybean yield, explaining over a quarter of the national average yield anomalies. Provincial-level analysis revealed this relationship mainly originated from the AAO’s relationship with specific northern provinces. During the spring and summer growing seasons, the fluctuations of key agrometeorological factors in these provinces associated with the AAO were consistently favorable for increased soybean yields. Further investigation indicates that winter Barents Sea ice concentration and summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies may explain how the AAO can influence key agrometeorological factors with a delay of several months. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the delayed effects of climate interactions between hemispheres on agricultural yields. Moreover, these findings offer critical insights for understanding the drivers of fluctuations in China’s soybean production, which has significant implications for shaping food trade policies and ensuring national food security.

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