Towards a Sustainable Regeneration Strategy: Modeling and Optimal Control of the Day Forest (Djibouti)

Résumé fourni par la source

Amid accelerating climate change and human pressures, forest ecosystems require urgent actions for reforestation, protection, and sustainable management. In arid and semi-arid regions, plantplant interactions, particularly the facilitative role of "nurse" species, are crucial for conserving endemic flora. This study models and analyzes these interactions to assess the potential of facilitative species in Djibouti's Day Forest, home to the declining Juniperus procera. After identifying the main degradation factors, the forest was divided into two zones to evaluate their intensity. To enhance the regeneration of Juniperus procera, we propose nature-based restoration strategies, highlighting Acacia seyal as a particularly effective nurse species. A mathematical model of active regeneration was calibrated using data from reports and studies on this forest, and an optimal control problem was solved via Pontryagin's maximum principle to evaluate management strategies. The results highlight the most effective approach for restoring forest resilience and ensuring the sustainable regeneration of the Day Forest.