Longitudinal evaluation of serial ctDNA kinetics using joint modeling in patients with metastatic breast cancer

Le résumé fourni par la source

This study applies joint modeling (JM) of longitudinal and time-to-event data to circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics measured by liquid biopsy in metastatic breast cancer (mBC), with a focus on dynamic prediction. Unlike traditional prognostic approaches that rely on static biomarkers, JM captures the continuous evolution of a methylation-based tumor fraction (TF) and links these changes to clinical outcomes. Serial liquid biopsies from 49 patients with hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative mBC treated with endocrine therapy plus a CDK4/6 inhibitor were analyzed using the Guardant Reveal assay. JM combined a flexible longitudinal sub-model to characterize temporal TF trajectories with a Cox proportional hazards model for overall survival (OS) and time to treatment discontinuation (TTD). The most recent TF estimate was strongly associated with both OS and TTD (p < 0.0001), demonstrating an inverse relationship between TF and prognosis. These findings highlight the value of JM for generating patient-specific, dynamically updated predictions that may support real-time, personalized clinical decision-making in mBC management.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.