Interactive maps: Distribution ranges of Mexican oaks under climate change conditions and their consequences on regional diversity patterns

Résumé fourni par la source

This repository contains a file associated with the following article: Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz, Ernesto I. Badano, Jesús Sandoval-Martínez and Federico Villarreal-Guerrero. “Distribution ranges of Mexican oaks under climate change conditions and their consequences on regional diversity patterns”, submitted to Environmental Research Communications. The supplementary file contains interactive maps optimized for Google Earth for desktop or, alternatively, ArcGIS Earth for desktop. To visualize these maps, we recommend installing the latest desktop version of any of this software. Opening this file may take several minutes, depending on the speed of the CPU, the available Random-Access Memory (RAM) and the Video Random Access Memory (VRAM). The interactive maps are organized in the different folders and detailed information on model outputs can be accessed expanding them (click on the arrow on the left of folders to expand them): Major mountain ranges of Mexico – This folder contain the polygons of the major mountain ranges of Mexico, which are the regions estimated to contain most oak species. Estimated species distributions – For each Mexican oak, this folder shows the distribution of georeferenced records used to calibrate its CNM. The folder also contains the estimated distribution ranges of the species (pixels with occurrence probability is higher than 0.5) under the near-to-present and future climate. The estimated surface area of distribution ranges (in km2) can be visualized clicking on the corresponding layer. The mid-century distribution ranges of species are provided separately following the predictions of the three CMIP6 models used in the study (CanESM5, MIROC6 and INM-CM4-8) at four radiative forcing levels each (2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5 W/m2). Clicking on Model information displays a message indicating the bioclimatic variables used to calibrate the CNM under near-to-present conditions, the percent variance explained by each of them, and the average AUC value of the model. This message also shows the statistical results supporting the relationships between near-to-present and future occurrence probabilities, which are accompanied with the corresponding graphs. These graphs are provided for the different radiative forcing levels, where the dashed black line is the theoretical relationship with intercept = 0 and slope = 1, while lines in other colours are the empirical relationships obtained for the predictions of CanESM5 (red line), MIROC6 (yellow line) and INM-CM4-8 (blue line). Shifts in alpha diversity – This folder contains interactive maps showing the current and projected oak species richness across Mexico. The maps are organized into subfolders for present-day climate and mid-21st-century projections derived from three CMIP6 models (CanESM5, MIROC6, and INM-CM4-8) across four radiative forcing (2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5 W/m2). To build these maps, Mexico was divided into a 1:50,000 UTM grid consisting of 2312 spatial units (27.7 x 32.5 km, ~900 km2 each). Oak richness within each cell was estimated by counting overlapping distribution ranges. For visualization, grid cells are categorized into intervals of ten species (refer to the map legend). Clicking any grid cell displays its total species count and a list of present oak species. To simplify the visualization, grid cells were categorized into intervals of ten species (see the reference scale of maps). Clicking any grid cell displays its total species count and the local list of oak species. Shifts in beta diversity – This folder contains interactive maps showing the comparisons between the current and future composition of oak assemblages across Mexico. The maps are organized into subfolders for present-day climate and mid-21st-century projections derived from three CMIP6 models (CanESM5, MIROC6, and INM-CM4-8) across four radiative forcing (2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5 W/m2). Species composition comparisons were performed within each cell of the 1:50000 UTM-scaled grid described above using the Jaccard similarity coefficient. Clicking any grid cell displays its current and projected species counts, as well as the number of persisting, lost, and gained species under future climatic conditions.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.