Explaining risk factors for pedestrian fatalities in Tanzania using a Mixed-Logit analysis

Résumé fourni par la source

Road traffic injuries remain a major public health concern in Tanzania. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated that in 2021, more than 10,000 people were killed in road traffic accidents in Tanzania, with pedestrians accounting for approximately 26% of all fatalities. This underscores the urgent need for thorough, context-specific analyses of the risk factors contributing to fatal pedestrian accidents. This study employed standard logistic regression and mixed-effects logistic regression models to analyse pedestrian accident data from 2015 to 2017, examining the impact of roadway, vehicle, and victim characteristics on the probability of fatal pedestrian outcome. The results identified several factors significantly associated with increased fatality accident risk, including crossing at junctions, collisions involving trucks or buses, walking on trunk/regional or rural roads, unpaved roads, lack of traffic control or reliance on sign-controlled intersections, and nighttime conditions. Additionally, pedestrians under 17 years old, those aged 35 years and older, and males were found to have a higher likelihood of fatal outcomes. These findings provide essential evidence on the factors contributing to fatal pedestrian accidents that can be used to support the development of targeted pedestrian safety interventions in Tanzania. Key measures, including improving mid-block crossing facilities, enhancing nighttime visibility, strengthening speed management on trunk and regional roads, and implementing targeted awareness campaigns for vulnerable groups, are essential. This study extends the LMIC pedestrian safety literature by applying national-level mixed-logit models in Tanzania to generate context-specific, data-driven evidence for reducing pedestrian fatalities.

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