Impacts of predicted climate and vegetation changes on pastoral systems: Insights from eleven Mediterranean case studies

Le résumé fourni par la source

The Mediterranean basin is a climate change hotspot characterised by strong environmental heterogeneity and high vulnerability of pastoral systems. This study investigates how climate and vegetation dynamics may affect rangelands and pastoral systems across contrasting climatic zones. We analysed eleven case studies spanning temperate, semi-arid, and arid zones using an ensemble of three global circulation models under optimistic (SSP245) and pessimistic (SSP585) scenarios. Vegetation changes were modelled through spectral indices (NDVI and SAVI) using the MaxEnt algorithm to assess land suitability for forage resources. Results indicate a consistent warming trend (+3 to +7 °C by 2070), coupled with heterogeneous precipitation responses, with the strongest declines in semi-arid zones. Vegetation responses were highly context-dependent, ranging from shrubland expansion in temperate zones to increases in bare soil and discontinuous grasslands in semi-arid and arid systems. Some mountainous and northern areas may act as local refugia, showing milder changes or localised greening effects. These dynamics translate into differentiated impacts on pastoral systems. Water scarcity emerges as a key constraint, particularly in semi-arid and arid zones, while vegetation changes may affect forage availability, quality, and seasonality. Livestock systems could be increasingly exposed to heat stress, forage shortages, and changing disease dynamics, highlighting strong spatial heterogeneity in vulnerability. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be tailored to context conditions. Key strategies include improved water management, livestock mobility, opportunistic forage cultivation, and the use of locally adapted breeds. However, these may entail risks of maladaptation where they increase pressure on ecosystems or depend on socio-economic constraints. Overall, linking climate projections with system-level analyses is essential to support context-sensitive adaptation pathways and enhance the resilience of Mediterranean pastoral systems.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.