Influence of Both La Nina and Island Isolation During COVID-19 on the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases in New Caledonia

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Background and Objectives: New Caledonia, an archipelago in the South Pacific, experienced an unprecedented conjunction of prolonged border closure during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020 to 2022) and marked influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This context provided a unique opportunity to explore how environmental drivers, island isolation, and socio-demographic factors interact to shape infectious disease dynamics. This study aimed to assess the respective and combined effects of climatic variability, travel restrictions, and socio-demographic factors on the dynamics of four priority infectious diseases. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analysed data from 2017 to 2023 on four infectious diseases: leptospirosis, dengue, influenza, and hepatitis A (HAV). Satellite precipitation data and the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) were used. Socio-demographic and economic variables were gathered. Statistical analyses employed descriptive analysis and Generalized Additive Mixed Models to evaluate the associations between climatic events, travel restrictions, and disease circulation using the communal level as a random effect and time (daily) as a spline effect. Results: We analysed 878 cases of leptospirosis, 165 of HAV, 6607 of influenza, and 7377 dengue cases. Influenza was associated with rainfall before lockdown (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.7, Confidence interval 95%, (CI95%), (0.6–0.8)) and disappeared during lockdown but resurged post-reopening losing its meteorological association. Dengue epidemics declined, coinciding with the Wolbachia program and border closure, and were associated with lower MEI (OR 0.78, CI95% (0.6–1) during the 2017 to 2020 period. HAV cases were correlated with the MEI (OR: 1.8, CI95% (1–3.3)). Leptospirosis cases were associated with cumulative rainfall (OR 1.12 (1.1–1.2)) and lower education (OR 1.04, CI95% (1–1.1)) and decreased with water supply (OR 0.7, CI95% (0.5–0.8)). Conclusions: Our findings highlight how climatic conditions, mobility restrictions, and socio-environmental inequities differentially shape infectious disease risks in island ecosystems. These results reinforce the need for integrated One Health surveillance that jointly addresses environmental change, social vulnerability, and infectious disease prevention.

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