Dynamic Spatiotemporal Dual-Encoder Transformer for Long-Term Traffic Prediction in LEO Satellite Networks

Le résumé fourni par la source

Accurate long-term traffic prediction in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks is essential for proactive resource allocation and congestion avoidance, yet remains challenging due to highly dynamic topologies, intermittent connectivity, and scarce real traffic data. Existing approaches are largely limited to short-term prediction or assume static spatial dependencies, making them inadequate for non-stationary LEO environments. To address these challenges, this paper proposes DST-DEformer, a dynamic spatial–temporal Transformer framework that jointly models evolving inter-satellite topology and multi-scale temporal dependencies. Specifically, a topology-adaptive graph convolution module captures time-varying spatial correlations, while a dual temporal encoder decouples long-term global trend modeling from short-term local fluctuation learning. In addition, a hybrid simulation–calibration framework is developed to generate realistic satellite traffic by incorporating orbital dynamics, demographic information, and real-world traffic trends. Extensive experiments on simulated LEO satellite traffic and the PEMS08 benchmark show that DST-DEformer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long-term prediction, achieving 4%-13% reductions in MSE and MAE and significantly slower error accumulation as the prediction horizon increases. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of DST-DEformer for long-term traffic prediction under dynamic network topologies.

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