Comprehensive Assessment of Grassland Fire Hazards Based on Multi-Source Data in Inner Mongolia

Le résumé fourni par la source

In recent years, global climate change has significantly increased the incidences of grassland fires, shifting their occurrence from seasonal events (primarily spring and autumn) to annual incidents. To enable a more accurate evaluation and zoning of grassland fire risk, this study established the Fire Source Hazard Index, Fire Fuel Hazard Index, and Fire Environmental Hazard Index based on multi-source data, employing the entropy weight method, random forest modeling, mathematical statistics, and spatial analysis. A comprehensive seasonal grassland fire hazard assessment model was constructed using these three indices and seasonal fire hazard zones were evaluated in Inner Mongolia. The results indicated that, among the fire source factors, the hazard weight of foreign fire sources was relatively high during spring (0.37) and summer (0.44). In autumn and winter, the hazard weights of road networks were higher, at 0.38 and 0.44, respectively. In the comprehensive hazard assessment, the fire environment hazard exhibited an objective existence with notable seasonal variation, whereas the hazard weight of fire source factors exceeded that of fuels across all seasons. The comprehensive grassland fire hazard in Inner Mongolia demonstrated distinct seasonality and regional heterogeneity. Temporally, fire hazards are widespread and intense in spring, limited and concentrated in summer, extensive yet dispersed in autumn, and lowest in winter. Spatially, grassland fire hazards decreased from east to west, with higher hazards concentrated in the eastern regions. Western Inner Mongolia had the lowest probability of fire occurrence. The validation results revealed a positive correlation between the proportion of fire points and hazard grades, confirming the rationality of the hazard classification and the accuracy of the assessment, which provides an important theoretical basis for the scientific management and effective prevention and control of grassland fires. Future research should further refine and explore more precise methods for grassland fire hazard assessment.

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