Insights from a European Hail Research Project—A Seamless Approach from Observations and Numerical Simulations to Impacts in a Changing Climate

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Abstract Severe convective storms were the costliest natural hazard globally in 2023, with hail as a major driver of economic losses. Single hail events regularly cause damage exceeding 4 billion U.S. dollars in Europe (e.g., France 2022, Italy 2023). The substantial risk of hail prompted the research initiative scClim in Switzerland, which unites expertise from multiple disciplines to advance the understanding of hail risk and its impacts in a changing climate across central Europe. Our approach combines a unique set of hail observations from high-resolution polarimetric radars, automated surface-based sensors, drones, and crowdsourced reports with European-wide convection-permitting climate simulations featuring an online hail diagnostic (HAILCAST). We further developed an open-source, seamless hail impact modeling platform together with stakeholders. The platform provides hail event hindcasts, forecasts, and impact assessments for vehicles, buildings, and crops, using the CLIMADA risk modeling framework. Our climate simulations, generating 11-yr hail climatologies for both the present climate and a +3°C warming scenario, show increased hail frequencies in northeastern Europe and decreased frequencies in southwestern Europe. Hailstorm track analyses reveal larger maximum hail sizes, more extensive hail swaths, and intensified precipitation and wind for cells producing large hail. Consequently, the future hail damage potential to buildings increases, while agricultural impacts present a more complex picture: Earlier growing seasons reduce crop exposure to hail, but regional increases in hail frequency amplify overall risk. These findings provide novel insights for developing adaptation strategies in sectors vulnerable to hail damage in a warming climate.

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