Analysing the relationship between load shedding and chicken meat prices in South Africa during the intense load-shedding period (2014–2023)

Résumé fourni par la source

Since 2008, South Africa has experienced frequent electricity outages, referred to as load shedding, which have severely disrupted energy-intensive agricultural industries such as the poultry industry due to its heavy reliance on electricity for broiler production, slaughtering, refrigeration, and cold storage throughout the value chain. Based on this, this study investigates the relationship between load shedding and chicken meat prices in South Africa from 2014 to 2023. For the analysis, monthly secondary time-series data on chicken meat prices were obtained from the South African Poultry Association, while load shedding data were sourced from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research. Descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Johansen’s cointegration test, and a simple linear regression model were employed to analyse the underlying patterns and relationships between load shedding and chicken meat prices. Descriptive statistics revealed that the average monthly load shedding was 238.08 GWh, with a range from 0.000 GWh to 2667 GWh, whereas wholesale IQF chicken meat prices averaged R22.29 per kilogram, with a minimum of R14.13 per kilogram and a maximum of R32.41 per kilogram. Trend analysis showed that both load shedding and chicken meat prices increased over the study period, with notable spikes in load shedding during 2022–2023. Johansen’s cointegration test showed no evidence of a long-term equilibrium relationship. Nonetheless, results from the simple linear regression exhibited a statistically significant positive relationship, with a one-unit increase in load shedding associated with R0.09 rise in chicken meat prices. However, the model accounted for only 37.5% of the variability. These findings imply that although load shedding influences short-term price increases, other factors also affect chicken meat prices in South Africa. Consequently, policy strategies should focus on mitigating immediate price pressures, while broader interventions addressing additional cost drivers within the value chain are equally essential to promote sustained price stability.

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