Comparative Analysis of the Spatial Correlation Network Structure and Influencing Factors of Municipal Solid Waste Management Efficiency Across Urban Agglomerations Under Carbon Constraints in China

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ABSTRACT Understanding municipal solid waste management efficiency (MSWME) from a spatial network perspective reveals how inter‐city linkages influence governance performance across urban agglomerations. This study analyzes municipal solid waste management efficiency (MSWME) spatiotemporal patterns in China's Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei (BTH), and Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions through integrated social network analysis and random forest modeling, revealing network heterogeneity and key drivers. Results show fluctuating MSWME growth in BTH and YRD contrasting with PRD's 9.6% decline, alongside increasingly connected spatial networks centered on core cities with spatial association patterns differing across urban agglomerations. It is revealed that network evolution has strengthened polycentric linkages, transitioning from isolation to integration, with the Pearl River Delta (PRD) achieving the highest density. Centrality metrics are controlled by core cities, contrasting with the imbalances in the core‐periphery relationship of peripheral areas that impede coordination. Two‐way spillover cities are identified as efficiency drivers through block modeling, whereas adaptive strategies are required for net‐benefit and broker clusters to address disparities. Influencing drivers identified via random forests include waste infrastructure, economic performance, fiscal input, demonstrating spatial heterogeneity. The findings provide insights pertinent to policy regarding the targeting of differentiated interventions across spatial hierarchies and the advancement of collaborative urban environmental strategies.

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