Accès ouvert déclaré 2026 article

Burden of 292 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in Iran, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Sadaf G Sepanlou, Hossein Rezaei Aliabadi, Madineh Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Arash Abdollahi, Hassan Abolhassani, Meysam Abolmaali, Dariush Abtahi, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir, Ali Ahmadi, Marjan Ajami, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Masoud Aman Mohammadi, Sohrab Amiri, Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq, Saeid Anvari, Jalal Arabloo, Saeed Asgary, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Haleh Ayatollahi, Najmeh Bahmanziari, Mohammad‐Mahdi Bastan, Maryam Bemanalizadeh, Milad Bonakdar Hashemi, Omid Dadras, Nicole Davis Weaver, Azizallah Dehghan, Shirin Djalalinia, Saeid Doaei, Ebrahim Eini, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Rana Ezzeddini, Aliasghar Fakhri‐Demeshghieh, Majid Fasihi Harandi, Alireza Feizkhah, Behzad Foroutan, Fataneh Ghadirian, Sadegh Ghafarian, Fatemeh Ghaffarifar, Abolfazl Ghahramani, Sulmaz Ghahramani, Mahsa Ghajarzadeh, Amirhossein Ghaseminejad-Raeini, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Mahsa Ghorbani, Pouya Goleij, Mahdi Gouravani, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Zahra Hadian, Dariush Haghmorad, Nasrin Hanifi, Hamidreza Hasani, Ali Hasanpour Dehkordi, Mahgol Sadat Hassan Zadeh Tabatabaei, Shokoufeh Hassani, Mohammad Heidari, Mojtaba Heydari, Mohammad‐Salar Hosseini, Kiavash Hushmandi, Jalil Jaafari, Morteza Jafarinia, Kasra Jahankhani, Sepide Javankiani, Ali Kabir, Leila R Kalankesh, Samad Karkhah, Hengameh Kasraei, Sina Kazemian, Faham Khamesipour, Mohammad Khammarnia, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Sepehr Khosravi, Ali‐Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Razzagh Mahmoudi, Reza Malekzadeh, Vahid Mansouri, Hamid Reza Marateb, Hossein Masoumi-Asl, Elahe Meftah, Mojgan Mirghafourvand‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬, Noushin Mohammadifard, Ibrahim Mohammadzadeh, Mohammad Mohseni, Ali H Mokdad, AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf, Yousef Moradi, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Ayoub Nafei, Noureddin Nakhostin Ansari, Ali Nasrollahizadeh, Amir Nasrollahizadeh, Athare Nazri-Panjaki, Jalil Nejati, Ali Nikoobar, Hassan Okati-Aliabad, Reza Pourbabaki, Reza Rabiei, Hadi Raeisi Shahraki, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Shayan Rahmani, Vahid Rahmanian, Ashkan Rasouli‐Saravani, Ramin Ravangard, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Rezaei, Nima Rezaei, Peyman Rezaei Hachesu, Mohsen Rezaeian, Gholamreza Roshandel, Morteza Rostamian, Masoumeh Sadeghi, Maryam Saeedi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Mehdi Safari, Alireza Saghafi, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Leili Salehi, Amir Salek Farrokhi, Sohrab Salimi, Hossein Samadi Kafil, Mahan Shafie, Hamid R. Shahsavari, Alireza Shakeri, Ali Shamekh, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Amin Sharifan, Amir Shiani, Reza Shirkoohi, Sina Shool, Seyed Afshin Shorofi, Soroush Soraneh, Seyed‐Amir Tabatabaeizadeh, Ramin Tabibi, Alireza Tahamtan, Moslem Taheri Soodejani, Razieh Tavakoli Oliaee, Seyed Mohammad Tavangar, Omid Vakili, Sajad Yaghoubi, Habib Yaribeygi, Hamed Zandian, Alireza Zangeneh, Kourosh Zarea, Mohsen Naghavi

1Citations signalées — pas une note de qualité
73Institutions déclarées
11Pays d’affiliation déclarés

Résumé fourni par la source

BACKGROUND: Better evaluation of the contribution of the main diseases, injuries, and risk factors for mortality and life expectancy is crucial for more efficient policy making at the national and subnational levels in Iran. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of emerging causes of mortality on health, specifically COVID-19, which can help policy makers implement preventive measures in similar situations. METHODS: In this systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, we present estimates of cause-specific mortality at the national and subnational levels in Iran from 1990 to 2023. New to this iteration of GBD, we present a decomposition analysis of the contribution of specific causes of death to net gain or loss in life expectancy across 31 provinces of Iran. We used an array of data sources including censuses, vital registration, and surveys for national and subnational estimates. FINDINGS: The two leading causes of death in Iran were ischaemic heart disease and stroke in both 1990 and 2019. However, in 2020 and 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic displaced the leading causes of death, ranking first with age-standardised mortality rates of 286·2 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 267·9-310·5) per 100 000 in 2020 and 250·0 deaths (233·2-272·5) per 100 000 in 2021. COVID-19 ranked second and tenth in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Life expectancy at birth for both sexes combined declined from 78·0 years (77·7-78·1) in 2019 to 74·3 years (74·0-74·4) in 2020. It steadily recovered to 78·8 years (78·5-79·2) in 2023. COVID-19 was the main cause of loss in life expectancy, by 4·19 years, between 2019 and 2020. There was a net gain of 12·4 years in life expectancy in Iran from 1990 to 2023. The net gain at the national level can be mostly attributed to reduced mortality from ischaemic heart disease (2·61 years), stroke (1·63 years), neonatal disorders (1·26 years), transport injuries (0·88 years), and neoplasms (0·64 years). The decline in mortality rates of major causes continued to 2023 despite the pandemic. An exception was Alzheimer's disease, which showed a 4·0% increase in rate between 2019 and 2023 and led to a net loss of 0·04 years in life expectancy since 1990. Diabetes led to a net loss of 0·09 years since 1990. There were variations between provinces in terms of age-standardised rates and the net change in life expectancy before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. INTERPRETATION: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the rising trend of life expectancy in Iran, varying across provinces. Findings show that the health-care infrastructure and policies in Iran were not efficient in controlling the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, mainly due to inadequate vaccination coverage and timeliness, specifically for vulnerable subgroups. Sanctions may have aggravated the effect of COVID-19 on loss in life expectancy of Iranians. Despite the pandemic, the declining trend in age-standardised rates for top causes of mortality has continued to 2023, leading to a full recovery of life expectancy and underscoring the ultimate resilience of Iran's health system. FUNDING: Gates Foundation.

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Contrôle bibliographique ouvert

DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.

Titre Crossref
Burden of 292 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in Iran, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Date Crossref
01/05/2026
Éditeur
Elsevier BV
Type
journal-article

Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude et ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.

Institutions déclarées

Tehran University of Medical SciencesShiraz University of Medical SciencesTabriz University of Medical SciencesIran University of Medical SciencesKarolinska InstitutetKhatam UniversityShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesShahrekord University of Medical SciencesNational Nutrition and Food Technology Research InstituteQazvin University of Medical SciencesUrmia UniversityUrmia University of Medical SciencesBaqiyatallah University of Medical SciencesUniversal Scientific Education and Research NetworkGuilan University of Medical SciencesMinistry of Health and Medical EducationZanjan University of Medical SciencesIsfahan University of Medical SciencesGovernment of the Northern TerritoryUniversity of WashingtonInstitute for Health Metrics and EvaluationFasa University of Medical SciencesShahid Chamran University of AhvazIslamic Azad University, Ahvaz BranchTarbiat Modares UniversityUniversity of TehranKerman University of Medical SciencesIranshahr UniversityWashington University in St. LouisShaheed Rajaei Cardiovascular Medical and Research CenterMashhad University of Medical SciencesKermanshah University of Medical SciencesGlobal Virus NetworkSemnan University of Medical SciencesJahrom University of Medical SciencesAlborz University of Medical SciencesShahroud University of Medical SciencesIran Nanohealth Committee Food and Drug OrganizationZahedan University of Medical SciencesIranian Academy of Medical SciencesIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiChildren's Medical CenterUniversity of IsfahanUniversitat Politècnica de CatalunyaKurdistan University of Medical SciencesYasuj University of Medical SciencesITMO UniversityIranian Institute for Health Sciences ResearchTorbat Heydarieh University of Medical SciencesTorbat Jam Faculty of Medical SciencesRafsanjan University of Medical SciencesGolestan UniversityGolestan University of Medical SciencesGonabad University of Medical SciencesSaveh University of Medical SciencesKiel Institute for the World EconomyCenter for Non-Communicable DiseasesQom University of Medical Science and Health ServicesBiotechnology Research CenterSaveetha UniversityKarachi Medical and Dental CollegePasteur Institute of IranInstitute for Advanced Studies in Basic SciencesUniversität für Weiterbildung KremsFlinders UniversityMazandaran University of Medical SciencesBabol University of Medical SciencesIslamic Azad University, MashhadHamedan University of Medical SciencesShahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesUniversity of NeyshaburUniversity of the West of EnglandAhvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences

Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.

Sujets associés

Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementChronic Disease Management StrategiesHealthcare Systems and Reforms
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