Data-Driven Spatial Mapping of Air Pollution Exposure and Mortality Burden in Lisbon Metropolitan Area

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Air pollution remains a critical environmental and public health threat, particularly in highly populated urban areas such as the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA). This study provides a refined and detailed assessment of the spatial distribution of air pollution and associated attributable mortality across the LMA. High-resolution (1 km2) annual mean concentrations of key pollutants (PM2.5, PM10 and NO2) for 2022 and 2023 were estimated by integrating outputs from the URBAIR dispersion model with ground-based monitoring observations using advanced geostatistical data-fusion techniques. Air pollutant concentrations were combined with gridded population data and age-stratified baseline mortality rates within a Geographic Information System framework to quantify spatial variations in health impacts. Using the World Health Organization AirQ+ framework and established concentration–response functions, we estimated a total of 3195 air-pollution-attributable deaths across the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) in 2022, increasing to 4010 deaths in 2023. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was identified as the dominant contributor, accounting for more than 40% of the total health burden. At a high spatial resolution (1 km2 grid), estimated mortality exhibited substantial variability, ranging from 0 to 29 deaths per cell in 2022 and from 0 to 36 deaths per cell in 2023. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale spatial analysis, revealing intra-urban disparities that are not captured by aggregated estimates of total attributable mortality. The proposed methodological framework, integrating dispersion modelling, data fusion, and spatially explicit health impact assessment at fine spatial scales, provides a robust and transferable approach to support evidence-based air quality management and urban health policy development in European metropolitan contexts. This integrated approach enhances comparability, improves exposure assessment accuracy, and strengthens the scientific basis for designing targeted mitigation strategies that could prevent hundreds of premature deaths annually while addressing documented spatial inequalities in pollution exposure.

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